I'm backing Heracles to win with over 2.5 goals in the match, as a single at 1.85.

The result leg rests on form. Heracles top the Eerste Divisie with 21 points from 8 matches, seven wins, 26 goals scored and a remarkable 21.4 shots per match. Away from home they have won three of their four league games and scored 13 in those four. This is a side that creates relentlessly, and I expect them to win this by something like 2-1 or 3-0.

The goals leg comes from Helmond as much as from the visitors. Helmond have not kept a clean sheet in any of their eight league games, both teams have scored in seven of them, and four of their last five have gone over 2.5. Their matches tend to be open, and that suits a Heracles side who need only a little space to punish people.

The danger is a narrow 1-0 or 2-0 grind. Both previous meetings stayed under, and Heracles have kept two clean sheets in their last five. Still, with the straight away win only 1.38, 1.85 for a scenario both sides' numbers point towards is worth taking.