I'm backing Switzerland to score at least twice at home to Slovenia, as a single at 1.52.

The case starts with what Switzerland have done in this Nations League campaign. Two games, two wins, both 3-0, and both of them away from home, at North Macedonia and in Scotland. They are averaging 23 shots and 10 on target per match in the competition, which is the kind of volume that usually turns into goals. Back on home soil I expect that pressure to be heavier, not lighter. The last time Slovenia came to Switzerland it finished 3-0 as well.

The risk is Slovenia's defence. They haven't conceded in either of their two Nations League games, they held Scotland to 0-0, and the most recent meeting between these sides ended goalless. If Slovenia sit deep and Switzerland go in at 1-0 with the finishing off, this goes down. But Slovenia have only managed 10 shots per match themselves. They spend a lot of time defending, and against this Swiss side that rarely holds for ninety minutes.

At 1.52, compared with the 1.28 on the straight home win, I'm happy to take the price.